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STATEMENT FROM B.C. SALMON FARMERS: NO EVIDENCE 2025 FRASER RIVER SOCKEYE RETURNS ARE LINKED TO SALMON FARM CLOSURES

STATEMENT FROM B.C. SALMON FARMERS: NO EVIDENCE 2025 FRASER RIVER SOCKEYE RETURNS ARE LINKED TO SALMON FARM CLOSURES

By August 15, 2025August 26th, 2025News

Liǧʷiłdaxʷ TERRITORY/CAMPBELL RIVER, BC — Recent commentary has suggested that promising 2025 Fraser River sockeye returns are linked to the removal of salmon farms in parts of British Columbia. The evidence does not support that assumption. The evidence does show that wild and farmed salmon are co-existing. 

Strong sockeye returns are being observed across the North Pacific, including in regions with and without salmon aquaculture, and are not just limited to the Fraser River. This broader pattern aligns with variability in ocean survival—a leading hypothesis under active study in 2025. (Examples include strong Cook Inlet returns reported this season.)  

Long-run trends from the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) provide essential context when evaluating any single season: 

  • Average returns are higher post-1990. 
  • 1950-1989: = ~6.54 Million total returns 
  • 1990-2023: ~7.9 Million total returns 


PSC Annual Report Application. Release 2025.04. Pacific Salmon Commission. [Updated 2025 Jul 24; accessed 2025 Aug 13]. https://www.psc1.shinyapps.io/PSC_Annual_Fraser 

This includes the largest runs in a century in 2010, when a record 28.2 million sockeye migrated from the North Pacific to the Fraser River. Salmon farms were operational during this time, producing over 70,000 tonnes annually (now the sector has been reduced to 50,000 tonnes). Salmon farms were removed from the Discovery Island region in 2022. 

Ironically, 2010 was during the Cohen Commission of Inquiry into the Decline of Sockeye Salmon in the Fraser River, which concluded that salmon farms pose no more than minimal risk to migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon: https://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/cohen/recomm-19-work-travaux-eng.html. 

Parallels in pink salmon returns 

Similar claims lacking substantiated evidence were made in 2023 about pink salmon. Long-term PSC data again demonstrates averages are higher post-1990 than in the 1959-1989 period: 

  • 1959-1989: ~9.6 Million average returns 
  • 1990-2023: ~14.1 Million average returns 

Fraser River # of adult spawners (average per run; Pacific Salmon Commission data from 2025-07-26)

Pink Salmon (odd years only)

  • Before salmon farming: 1959-1989 = 2,846,833
  • During salmon farming: 1991-2021 = 9,880,064 (= 3.5 x increase)

For background, see BCSFA’s prior statement addressing the 2023 pink salmon boom here. 

Federal risk assessments and recent peer-reviewed scientific studies on pathogens and sea lice find farms have no effect on wild salmon populations.  

“Claiming farm closures caused this year’s Fraser River sockeye returns is misleading,” said Brian Kingzett, Executive Director, BCSFA. “The evidence shows no link between farm removals and Fraser sockeye returns. Scientists suspect favourable marine conditions have played a role this season.” 

What the science shows about risk and interactions 

New studies published in 2024 and 2025 reinforce earlier scientific consensus that farmed salmon populations do not negatively impact wild salmon populations. It’s clear that the time for perpetuating fears around wild versus farmed salmon has passed, the world needs both.  

In support of our commitment to transparency and evidence-based decision making, salmon farming companies in B.C. have made available to researchers a comprehensive data set covering over 20 years of wild and farmed sea data. 

Science and research examining disease transfer and sea-lice impacts over several years support the notion that coexistence of wild and farm-raised salmon can exist. 

  • Mouthrot (Tenacibaculum maritimum). A study examining Tenacibaculum, commonly referred to as “mouth rot”, concluded that Chinook salmon cohabitating with infected farm-raised Atlantic salmon showed no illness or mortality, even when exposed to high pathogen concentrations. This marks the first interspecific transmission study of its kind in Canada, directly addressing public concerns about disease transmission between farm-raised and wild salmon.
    Tenacibaculosis Caused by Tenacibaculum maritimum Is Not Transmitted From Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) to Canadian Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha W.) in a Cohabitation Model
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/are/3544576  

In April 2024, the BC Salmon Farmers, in partnership with the Coalition of First Nations for Finfish Stewardship (FNFFS) and the BC Centre for Aquatic Health Sciences (CAHS), released a comprehensive 500-page science review titled “Modern Salmon Farming in British Columbia.” The report includes contributions and data from First Nations, scientists, subject matter experts, government, and eNGOs. 

Why is this a good year?  

Alaskan Author Craig Medred, notes in his recent article that this is a good year for sockeye across their range (areas with and without salmon farming). 

It is irresponsible to look at just the Fraser River. For Alaska, it looks much like the Fraser:  

“All of this adds up to a known return of at least 9.6 million sockeye, but Fish and Game calculates an estimated 17 percent add-on for returns to more than a dozen “unmonitored” sockeye systems feeding the Inlet. Those add-ons would bring the total return to somewhere over 11.2 million, approaching twice the forecast and close to 65 percent more than the top of the range for the number of fish expected to return.” 

Medred makes the point that “Survival at sea can make a whale of a difference in how many salmon return to Alaska and of what species. And humans know so little about this aspect of the salmon life cycle.” 

 Medred also writes about this year’s Fraser River returns:  

 “Returns to the Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada are also unexpectedly high. Once one of the major sockeye producers on the West Coast, the Fraser has struggled through some grim years. 

In 2024, only 26 early sockeye successfully spawned in the Stuart River, a major Fraser spawning tributary, the Pacific Salmon Commission reported. 

This year? 

“As of July 29, 734,400 Early Stuart sockeye had already passed through the lower Fraser River,” the Commission reported, adding that the Stuart hasn’t witnessed a sockeye return of this magnitude since the last century. 

“It’s too early to determine exactly why the early Stuart sockeye run is so high this year,” the Commission added. “(But) some scientists are pointing to favourable, cooler ocean conditions due to an unusual three-year La Niña weather pattern between 2020 and 2023.” 

There is a lot of speculation that a “cold tongue” of cool water in the middle of the Gulf of Alaska provided better feeding conditions for sockeye, which have been in a generally losing competition with pinks for years now. Warmer waters are generally accepted as more productive for the smaller species. 

In his other article, Medred explores the interesting hypothesis that cyclones effectively stir the stratified upper ocean and produce significant sea surface temperature (SST) cooling, favouring sockeye salmon.  https://craigmedred.news/2025/07/30/awash-in-fish/ 

For additional information on Wild Pacific Salmon, Dr. Dick Beamish (Order of Canada) wrote for the public in Island Fisherman: “Re-think What We Know About Salmon”  https://islandfishermanmagazine.com/re-think-what-we-know-about-salmon/  

The BC Salmon Farmers summarized a lot of the big picture on wild salmon, including Dr. Beamish’s work, in our recent science document – wild salmon chapter here: 

Comments suggesting that Salmon Farms are responsible for wild salmon runs are a common tactic used by anti-salmon farm advocates and activists 

Articles recently published in the Vancouver Sun, Times Colonist, and The Tyee, include claims by Alexandra Morton and Don Svanvik attributing the promising sockeye returns to the removal of salmon farms. This statement is false, and no supporting scientific evidence links high returns to the removal of salmon farms. The successful sockeye returns are being experienced across the North Pacific including areas with and without farms in operation. 

Alexandra Morton repeatedly makes this exact claim about other salmon species returns and sea lice infestations, which were also disproven. During an interview with CTV, Morton claimed, among others “There’s a direct correlation between fish farms and wild salmon”. CTV later removed the interview from its website after it was identified that the broadcast contained numerous false claims. 

Most recently, during an anti-open net-pen salmon industry webinar on August 6th, 2025 Alexandra Morton reasserts false claims from 2022 “that pink salmon in the Ahta River experienced returns tenfold after farms were removed”. 

The facts about the Ahta river, pink salmon, and local salmon farm operations are: 

  • An average of 19,291 pink salmon have returned to the Ahta river over the last decade in the ‘even’ years (pink salmon return in two-year cycles). 
  • 907 salmon returned in 2020 – a relatively low return that mirrored the coast-wide low return of most all species of Pacific salmon (Bob Chamberlin of the First Nations Wild Salmon Alliance, incorrectly states this number as 200 in several appearances including the Vancouver Sun). 11 salmon farms were active during the outmigration (moving from rivers to open sea) for these salmon (March 2019). 
  • A record-high return of 68,871 pink salmon returned in 2014. A total of 12 salmon farms were active in the area during this outmigration (March 2013). 
  • A total of 11 salmon farms were active during the outmigration for this year’s (2022) return (March 2021). Returning populations for this year have yet to be confirmed by fisheries experts, but early reports suggest strong returns of pink and sockeye salmon may occur in many regions of B.C. 

For background, see BCSFA’s prior statement addressing salmon returns in the Ahta River here.  

Like all British Columbians, we celebrate this year’s impressive sockeye return. However, these continual reckless and unsubstantiated claims are damaging as they create confusion amongst the public and are unfair to the thousands of families who work in our sector and care for the marine environment. At a time of economic uncertainty and food-security challenges, Canada needs reliable, low-carbon protein and family-supporting jobs in rural and coastal communities. Our work aligns with the federal goal of building an economy that works for all Canadians—supporting reconciliation with Rights-Holder First Nations, stable employment, and domestic food production. 

 Sources & further reading (as referenced above) 

MEDIA CONTACT 

Michelle Franze
Manager of Communications, Partnerships and Community
michelle@bcsalmonfarmers.ca
604-202-4417 

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